TEXAS TROPICS

As the 2021 Atlantic hurricane season technically comes to a close, last official day November 30, we look back on the effects the season had here in the state of Texas, since this is Texas Tropics . There wasn't a lot of action for the Lone Star state in 2021. Just one named system made landfall in Texas, and it was a hurricane, but other than that, not a whole lot going on, particularly for a season that saw 21 named storms, 3rd most ever. Things did look like they'd be getting off to an ominous start when the 2nd Invest of the season formed in the western Gulf of Mexico in mid May, a good 10, 12 days before the official start of the hurricane season. Had this system developed, it would have been the 1st tropical storm to EVER make Texas landfall in the off-season. (Dec-May). Fortunately, this system pretty much dissipated before it came ashore near Matagorda Bay.  May Invest 91L By June 11th, the very next Invest (92L) was stirring down in the Bay of Campeche. Early on there...

Hurricane Sam has been one of the most impressive storms to come along in a while. Sam formed on the 23rd of September, became a hurricane the next day, and became a major hurricane the day after that, September 25th. Sam has maintained the status of a major hurricane, cat 3 or better, ever since. A full week now of winds of 115 mph or higher. And it's mostly been higher. Sam becomes the 8th hurricane in the sattelite era ( since 1966 ), to maintain cat 3 status or higher for 7 days or more. Hurricane Ivan in 2004 holds the record at 10 days. And Sam is expected to remain at cat 3 until at least early on Sunday ( Oct. 3 ). Sam hit cat 4 status on the 26th, and on that same day, hit what is estimated to be it's peak intensity with winds of 155 mph. Technically, winds of 156 mph and greater put you in cat 5 territory. Sam could very well have been a cat 5 at that time, but it was a little too far out in the open ocean for recon to be there at that time. With category 5 hurricanes...

When it comes to storm names in the Atlantic, there may not be any more feared than those that start with the letter "I". And that's because of the 93 storm names that have been retired, nearly 12% have started with the letter "I". And if you count the Greek letter Iota, which was retired last year that isn't officially an "I" storm, that's 13% of the retired names starting with an "I". But Iota isn't really a name, it's a Greek letter, so we won't count it. For a storm name to be retired, it has to cause a lot of deaths and/or significant and lasting damage somewhere. Examples of some of the more memorable retired names, Carla in 1961, Camille in '69, Andrew in '92, Katrina in 2005, and Harvey in 2017. Those were all some powerful hurricanes that caused a lot of damage and death. Storms that we still talk about all of these years later. And a storm doesn't have to be powerful to get retired. Tropical storm All...

We’re about at that time of the year where the tropics start to heat up, particularly in the deep Atlantic in what is called the Main Development Region (MDR), where the majority of storms develop during a typical season. Also known as Cape Verde season, for a group of islands, called the Cape Verde Islands, just off the African coast, where tropical waves coming off the coast into the Atlantic, start seeing better conditions to develop and make the long journey across the Atlantic, a lot of times into our part of the world. These storms don’t necessarily develop near the Cape Verde islands, it’s just that the waves coming off the African coast stay together long enough to develop further instead of breaking apart and dissipating like so many early in the season do. About 60, give or take, of these tropical waves come off the African coast in a given season. Most never amount to anything, either dissipating, or some even make the long journey across the Atlantic as light to moderate th...

We're 2 months into the 2021 hurricane season and we've only had 5 named storms. By this time last year we had already had NINE named storms. In fact, the month of July by itself last year had 5 named storms, and here we've had 5 total this year. As we move into August, the tropics should start to pick up some, as this is typically when tropical activity begins to rise. There's also this thing called the Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) that is expected move into the Atlantic tropical zones. The MJO is an atmospheric thing that moves across the planet along tropical regions and enhances tropical rainfall when it's present. The more rainfall, the more chance of something spinning up. In the record breaking season last year, August only gave us 4 named storms. I'd expect that total to be easily matched this season. It wasn't until September last year that things really got crazy when a record 10 storms formed. By the end of September, the season's list of n...

With the recent tropical system in the Gulf of Mexico, there were 3 different identifiers used to report on this system. We first knew it as Invest 92L . Later it was known as Potential Tropical Cyclone #3 . Then just as it was making landfall it became Tropical Storm Claudette . What do these titles mean, and how many more are there? Tropical depression, tropical storm, hurricane....those are the terms we are most familiar with concerning weather in the tropics. But what are all of these other terms you hear being mentioned from time to time? Most tropical systems form from what are called Tropical Waves . There are systems that form from old frontal boundaries that get out over the water and start to spin up, but for the most part, a tropical wave is where it all starts. About 60% of named storms come from tropical waves, and 85% of major hurricanes form from a tropical wave. These waves are basically troughs of low pressure that, of course, form in the tropics, mostly coming off the...

The official start date for what is considered "Hurricane Season" is June 1. The season's last day is November 30. It's in this time frame that conditions become the most conducive for tropical activity to occur. In fact, since 1851, 97% of the systems that have reached at least tropical storm strength, have occured between June 1 and November 30. But Mother Nature doesn't adhere to dates on a calendar, and as a result, there have been numerous tropical systems that have popped up outside of this official "season". The month of May, the month immediately preceding the official start, is when we see the majority of these "off-season" systems as conditions begin to improve for tropical development as we near the official "season". 64% of the off-season activity occurs in May. In fact, with the formation of Ana a couple of days ago, there has been a storm form in May for 7 straight years. This has prompted discussion of moving the start ...

Our little early season disturbance in the western Gulf is raising some eyebrows. Identified as Invest 91, which is what the NHC gives systems with the potential to develop, this thing has a chance to make history. All models indicate this system will come ashore along the Texas coast, most have it somewhere near Matagorda Bay. In recorded history, there has NEVER been an off-season system at tropical storm strength or better, strike the Texas coast. NEVER. There was a tropical depression that affected Texas in 1936, but that's it. If this system develops into a tropical, or even a subtropical storm, in which it will still get a name, it will be the 1st ever to make Texas landfall before June 1. The system clearly has a low level circulation that is easily seen from satellite. The thing is, if you can clearly see the low level spin, it means storms are not forming around it's center. And the reason storms are not forming around the center is that it is sucking in a ton of dry a...

The dawn of a new hurricane season is upon us ( 2 weeks away ), and if you've lived in hurricane country ( U.S. east and Gulf coasts ) for any amount of time, you know about getting and being prepared for the upcoming season every year. These next few weeks are when you're supposed to be out stocking up on supplies that will be essential in helping you get through a week or two without power and possibly water and food, if you're in the path of a hurricane. You do this now so that you're not in a mad rush to get these supplies when the warnings come out, and risk seeing empty shelves at the store, as people rush to hoard supplies and clean everything out. Unfortunately, most people do not heed this advice and choose the mad scramble instead. A reason for this may be that an area can go years without a serious threat from a tropical storm or hurricane, and hundreds of thousands of people will have moved to these hurricane prone areas in that time, never having had to exp...

The official start of the Atlantic hurricane season is just over a month away, but an outrageous looking super cell thunderstorm over central Texas last night was about as scary looking on satellite imagery as any tropical system you could imagine.  This thing blew up as big as any tropical storm or hurricane we typically see. The mega cold cloud tops represented by the white, gray and black, is where intense straight line winds were produced, that in some instances are more than capable of reaching hurricane strength. There were plenty of tornadoes spinning up in this thing as well. The updrafts were so powerful in this mega super cell that it produced hail the size as softballs near Hondo, TX, just west of San Antonio. photo courtesy of @TheRealDoctorT This incredible super cell had a reach from near Del Rio at the southern Texas border, to near Texarkana at the northern Texas border. That's nearly 600 miles. That's a big storm. A lot of tropical systems are in the 300-400 mi...

Tropical systems in the southern hemisphere, everything south of the equator, happen throughout the world on a consistent basis. In the south Pacific tropical cyclones affect areas near the Philippines and eastern Australia. The southern Indian ocean sees storms affecting western Australia and as far west as eastern Africa. Tropical systems south of the equator spin in a clockwise rotation, as opposed to the counter-clockwise spin we typically see in our part of the world. When you think of tropical systems in the Atlantic ocean, you think of the area north of the equator between Africa and North America. This includes the Caribbean Sea, the Gulf of Mexico, and the entire eastern seaboard of the United States. This is because this is where almost all tropical systems in the Atlantic ocean form. In the last 20 years 320 systems have developed into tropical storm status in this area, an average of 16 storms every single year. Last year a record high 30 systems formed. But what about the ...

As the start of the 2021 Atlantic hurricane season draws ever closer, updated and finalized predictions of how the upcoming season will turn out are making their way to the forefront. These typically don't hold a lot of meaning, as no one ever dreamed of what happened last season, when a record 30 storms were named. But because of that record breaking season, it is a little interesting to see what the experts think the follow up to that will be. Going back and looking at mega active seasons out of the norm, we look at the 1995 and 2005 seasons. We see that the activity following both of those seasons were significantly down. In 1995, there were 19 named storms, 2 names short of exhausting the names list for what would have been the 1st time ever. This is when we learned that Greek letters would be used to name storms if the list was exhausted. The following season (1996) saw just 13 named storms, slightly above the normal range of expectancy, where the pre-season predictions were i...

The World Meteorological Organization is who is in charge of naming tropical systems. They use a list of names using the all the letters of the English alphabet, except the letters Q, U, X, Y and Z. That leaves 21 letters of the alphabet for storm names each season. There are 6 rotating lists currently in use. 2005 was the 1st time ever that the 21 names on a list had ever been exhausted. It was determined then, as we got closer to using all the names, that if there was another storm to develop after the W storm, that we'd then use the letters of the Greek alphabet to name anymore storms that season. That 2005 season ended up having a then record 27 named storms that season, with tropical storm Zeta forming on December 31st that year. It wasn't until this past hurricane season (2020), that we saw the list exhausted for a 2nd time. But this time it happened still in the peak of the season (mid September). Not only did the 2020 season break all the records for named storms (30), ...