SAM, VICTOR, AND THE TEXAS SEASON ENDING

Hurricane Sam has been one of the most impressive storms to come along in a while. Sam formed on the 23rd of September, became a hurricane the next day, and became a major hurricane the day after that, September 25th. Sam has maintained the status of a major hurricane, cat 3 or better, ever since. A full week now of winds of 115 mph or higher. And it's mostly been higher. Sam becomes the 8th hurricane in the sattelite era (since 1966), to maintain cat 3 status or higher for 7 days or more. Hurricane Ivan in 2004 holds the record at 10 days. And Sam is expected to remain at cat 3 until at least early on Sunday (Oct. 3).

Sam hit cat 4 status on the 26th, and on that same day, hit what is estimated to be it's peak intensity with winds of 155 mph. Technically, winds of 156 mph and greater put you in cat 5 territory. Sam could very well have been a cat 5 at that time, but it was a little too far out in the open ocean for recon to be there at that time. With category 5 hurricanes in the Atlantic basin being somewhat rare, considering there's only been 14 since 2000, and 28 since we gave storms names starting in 1950, the National Hurricane Center usually needs solid evidence to classify a storm cat 5, even though they pulled the trigger last year on hurricane Iota, then downgraded it to cat 4 in post-season analysis. It's possible Sam could get an upgrade in the post-season analysis, but for now, just a high end cat 4.

Sam fluctuated in intensity the next couple of days, still maintaining cat 3 status, and hitting cat 4 again on Tuesday the 28th, where it stayed at for over 84 hours. Sam even took another run at cat 5, but with it closer to the Leeward Islands, allowing for more recon missions, it fell just short. 

Sam was a slow moving storm for it's first week or so of existence, traveling across the open Atlantic at less than 10 mph. Unusually slow for systems making that trip across the Atlantic. As Sam approached the islands, it starting curving to the northeast of there. Bermuda was in the cone for a while, but it quickly became clear that Sam would recurve well to the east of there. Sam has picked up a lot of forward speed, traveling at about 20 mph now, and the further north it goes, the cooler water it runs into, and the weakening begins, which has already taken place. Sam, as of this post (11:00 am, Oct. 2), is still a category 4 hurricane. Sam should start weakening and could remain above cat 3 status through at least Sunday. It could remain at hurricane strength 'til at least Monday, which would be 12 days of being a hurricane. Sam should be well into extratropical transition by then as it heads out to the north Atlantic to die.

Meanwhile, tropical storm Victor, likely the last Cape Verde storm of the season, looked like it had some promise early on. Victor was once thought to become a hurricane, but the environment around it has quickly become unfavorable, and Victor is barely hanging on and should be done in the next couple of days.

The arrival of Victor leaves us with just 1 name left, of the 21 names on the 2021 storm list. Only twice in history have we exhausted that list. 2005 and 2020. And that includes going back and assuming we gave storms names before 1950. Only twice have we had 21 or more tropical storms/hurricanes in a season. One more this year would, of course, be the 3rd time, and 2nd year in a row. Better equipment to detect these storms helps the increase of named systems. And there's still 8 and a half weeks of the season remaining, so getting 1 more seems very likely.

As the calendar flips to October, areas of interest change, with regards to climatology. The Cape Verdes, and the MDR (main development region), or open Atlantic, becomes less active for development. However, areas closer to home start to heat up. The northwestern Caribbean, eastern Gulf of Mexico, and the east coast of the U.S. become the hot spots for development from here on out. 80% of U.S. landfalling tropical systems happen before October. But even though the numbers start falling, it doesn't mean some bad storms can't do some damage after October 1st. Just last year, 2 hurricanes made landfall in Louisiana in October (Delta & Zeta).

The reason for fewer landfalls after October 1st is that we get deeper into the fall season. That means more cold fronts start to make their way further south. These fronts act as a shield to deflect these tropical systems away. This is the main reason that Texans are happy to see October on their calendars. And that's because it's very rare for Texas to get a landfalling hurricane after October 1st. In fact, there's only been 3 recorded October hurricane strikes in Texas since record keeping began in 1851.

The last hurricane to make landfall in Texas was hurricane Jerry on October 16, 1989. Jerry was a cat 1 blow that hit Galveston Island. A category 2 hurricane hit Freeport on October 4, 1949. And a cat 2 hurricane hit south of Corpus Christi in 1912. So for Texas, once October comes along, though the chances aren't zero, they become pretty low for a landfalling tropical system to strike. It was 37 years between the 1912 hurricane and the one in 1949. Then it was 40 years after that Jerry struck. It's been 32 years since Jerry, so Texas could be getting close to being due for another one soon, so never say never, but October is, for the most part, good news for Texans with regards to the tropics.