SLOWER PACE

We're 2 months into the 2021 hurricane season and we've only had 5 named storms. By this time last year we had already had NINE named storms. In fact, the month of July by itself last year had 5 named storms, and here we've had 5 total this year.


As we move into August, the tropics should start to pick up some, as this is typically when tropical activity begins to rise. There's also this thing called the Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) that is expected move into the Atlantic tropical zones. The MJO is an atmospheric thing that moves across the planet along tropical regions and enhances tropical rainfall when it's present. The more rainfall, the more chance of something spinning up.

In the record breaking season last year, August only gave us 4 named storms. I'd expect that total to be easily matched this season. It wasn't until September last year that things really got crazy when a record 10 storms formed. By the end of September, the season's list of names had already been exhausted, and we were already into the Greek alphabet. Naming storms after Greek letters will no longer be used, and we'll now go to an auxillary list of names.

With a record breaking 30 storm season last year, it was pretty widely accepted that this year would not match it. I mean, that would be really, really hard to do. But, even if we only have 22 storms this year, 8 less, that would still be the 3rd most ever.  That could still be the case as we are only 4 storms off of last year's pace.

The Saharan Air Layer (SAL), dust from the Sahara Desert being blown into and carried across the Atlantic, has been a big deterrent in anything developing across the MDR (main development region). This dry, dusty air plays a big role in suppressing thunderstorm activity. But as the MJO moves in, things could, and should start to change.

Comparatively speaking, it's been rather quite in the tropics so far. And we would love for it to stay that way. Still, 5 named storms through the 1st 2 months is pretty active. But we are in a very active period as we're averaging almost 17 named storms per year in the last decade.

So moving into August will have us seeing a rise in the tropical activity. The summer sun heating the oceans and atmospheric conditions becoming more favorable for tropical development. Things should start to get popping again within the next couple of weeks. But for right now, all is quiet.


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