2021 TEXAS TROPICS REVIEW

As the 2021 Atlantic hurricane season technically comes to a close, last official day November 30, we look back on the effects the season had here in the state of Texas, since this is Texas Tropics. There wasn't a lot of action for the Lone Star state in 2021. Just one named system made landfall in Texas, and it was a hurricane, but other than that, not a whole lot going on, particularly for a season that saw 21 named storms, 3rd most ever.

Things did look like they'd be getting off to an ominous start when the 2nd Invest of the season formed in the western Gulf of Mexico in mid May, a good 10, 12 days before the official start of the hurricane season. Had this system developed, it would have been the 1st tropical storm to EVER make Texas landfall in the off-season. (Dec-May). Fortunately, this system pretty much dissipated before it came ashore near Matagorda Bay. 

May Invest 91L

By June 11th, the very next Invest (92L) was stirring down in the Bay of Campeche. Early on there were some concerns that Texas could be dealing with this one. 5 days after it became an Invest, the NHC upgraded it to a Potential Tropical Cyclone, but the expected track was moving further away from Texas. This system eventually became Tropical Storm Claudette and it made landfall near New Orleans.

Pacific Dolores streaming into Atlantic Claudette

About a day later, the remnants of Tropical Storm Dolores from the east Pacific, was part of a moisture trail that worked it's way into The Valley, and on into the circulation of Claudette. This simply brought a few rain showers to south Texas and nothing more.

By the end of June, an upper level low formed just off the Texas coast near Brownsville. There was no further development.

Hurricane Grace about to make 2nd landfall in Mexico

The next semi-Texas threat came in mid-August when Tropical Storm Grace was working it's way through the big islands in the Caribbean. Initially, models had Grace curving towards southern Florida, and it seemed like after every run they'd go more and more to the left. At one point, the models were lining up Grace straight at Texas, but then they kept going left. Eventually, Grace struck the Yucatan Peninsula as a cat 1 hurricane. It then entered the Bay of Campeche, regained hurricane strength, and made a 2nd Mexican landfall as a major cat 3 hurricane. No effects on Texas.

East Texas briefly in the cone of Ida

The next potential threat came towards the end of August when a system in the central Caribbean started forming. Early models were split on sending this system to either Texas or Louisiana. This system eventually becomes Hurricane Ida, and it blows up to a category 4 hurricane. Ida, of course, makes landfall near New Orleans as a cat 4.

Hurricane Ida heading towards Louisiana

By mid-September, another system was forming in the Bay of Campeche. On September 12th, it became Tropical Storm Nicholas. Early on there were 3 different scenarios for Nicholas, but all 3 were going to affect Texas. One had Nicholas striking near the border with Mexico and affecting The Valley. Another had Nicholas scraping the entire Texas coast, then making landfall in Louisiana. And another had a landfall somewhere near Matagorda Bay, and moving up the Highway 59 corridor towards Houston. The latter is the one that played out.

Nicholas just before becoming a hurricane

Nicholas became a hurricane on September 13th, and just after midnight on the 14th, made landfall near Sargent Beach, about 30 miles SE of Bay City, as a minimal cat 1 blow. By sunrise, Nicholas was downgraded to a strong tropical storm as it entered the metro Houston area. Most of the winds and rain associated with Nicholas were on it's eastern side and affected southeast portions of the Houston area the most. The immediate coast saw the worst of it as Galveston experienced winds near 50 mph, and nearly 14" of rain. Most of Harris County saw rain totals under 3".

Nicholas making landfall near Sargent Beach, TX

The next, and what turned out to be the last, Texas threat, again came from the Pacific side as the remnants of Hurricane Pamela worked it's way across 700 miles of Mexico and into Texas. 5" per hour rain totals were common in areas to the south and east of San Antonio.

Remnants of Pacific Pamela working into Texas

So that would wrap up the tropics for the state of Texas for the 2021 season. Of the 7 storms that formed in or entered the Gulf, only 3 made it to the western Gulf. Claudette started from the Bay of Campeche and worked it's way north eventually towards Louisiana, more of a central Gulf storm though, Grace works it's way across the Yucatan and into the Bay of Campeche, and Nicholas, making Texas landfall. Deep east Texas was in the "cone" for a few advisories with Ida, south Texas was briefly in the cone for Grace, a couple of Pacific storm remnants made it into Texas, and that was it for the 2021 season. 





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