2021 PREDICTIONS

As the start of the 2021 Atlantic hurricane season draws ever closer, updated and finalized predictions of how the upcoming season will turn out are making their way to the forefront. These typically don't hold a lot of meaning, as no one ever dreamed of what happened last season, when a record 30 storms were named. But because of that record breaking season, it is a little interesting to see what the experts think the follow up to that will be.

Going back and looking at mega active seasons out of the norm, we look at the 1995 and 2005 seasons. We see that the activity following both of those seasons were significantly down. In 1995, there were 19 named storms, 2 names short of exhausting the names list for what would have been the 1st time ever. This is when we learned that Greek letters would be used to name storms if the list was exhausted. The following season (1996) saw just 13 named storms, slightly above the normal range of expectancy, where the pre-season predictions were in the 8-11 range.

2005 to 2006 saw the gap even further apart. The then record breaking season of 2005 saw 27 named storms, and a 28th storm that later was determined should have been named. In 2006, there were only 10 named storms, well below the predictions of 13-17, and of course 18 short of the season before. And even if you want to go back to 1933 where there were a then record 20 storms, the following season (1934) had just 13.

The record breaker of 2020, saw 30 named storms, and ultimately ended the use of Greek letters after the seasonal list was exhausted. This was mainly because 2 of the Greek named storms qualified for retirement, that is, when a storm is so powerful and/or destructive, the use of that name gets retired. Example, the name Harvey has been retired because of the destruction it caused in Texas in 2017. The name that will replace Harvey will be Harold. Katrina is a retired name. Using the Greek alphabet made it impossible to replace a retired Greek letter named storm, in this case Eta and Iota. So the Greek letters will be replaced by an alternate list that starts over at "A" and uses regular names.

2020 pre-season predictions actually saw a pretty active season last year. Nowhere near what it ended up being, but 16-19 named storms were pretty common amongst the prediction community, and that was a really active prediction. Now the big question is, what happens in the follow-up season to that mega active year last year? Will we see a significant drop in activity like we did the 2 previous mega active seasons?

William Gray, who passed away 5 years ago, professor of atmospheric science at Colorado State University, and his team there at CSU, has been one of the leaders in the tropical cyclone prediction game for years. Their predictions for 2021 are for a really active season again this year with 17 named storms. Again, last year they predicted 16. 16-19 named storms this season falls in line with the other major prediction outlets as well, including NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, and the United Kingdom's Met Office. How that translates, well, no one really knows.

Tons of factors come into play. It isn't as simplistic as saying it was down on 2 occasions before, so therefore it must happen that way again. Atmospheric conditions, and not just in the tropical Atlantic, play a big role in what actually ends up happening, and predictions are based off that. That said, to expect a duplicate to what happened last year, or God forbid even more, you might be safe to take the under. But even a 22 named storm season, 8 fewer than last year, would still be the 3rd most ever. So there's that.

Even taking in all the factors that these major predictors do, it certainly isn't an exact science. Here's a quick glance at the mega active seasons we've talked about here, the follow-up seasons, and the pre-season predictions for all.

After mega active seasons, 1995 and 2005, both times the predictions for those seasons were way off. Both times the predictions for the following seasons were greater than the previous season, and both times the actual amount of storms were far lower than both the previous season and the predictions. Predictions for the super mega active 2020 season were also way off, and the prediction for the follow up 2021 season is higher. What does that mean for 2021? Not really sure. I guess it could tell us if the tools used to make predictions have gotten better since 2006 (15 years ago), but then here's a look at the a 5 year period from 2015-2019.

So it doesn't really look like these predictions are much different than predicting what will happen in a football game. In other words, this is what could happen if this and that takes place, but what actually ends up happening is a far different outcome.

We are, however, currently in the most active tropical period in recorded history (1851). That may mostly be due to the advanced ways we can now see what's going on in all of the tropics, but still, we've had some record shattering numbers happening the last 10-15 years or so. We used the anomaly of the 19 storm 1995 season above, and at the time is was an anomaly. The 2nd most active season ever on record. But starting in 2010, there were 19 storms for 3 straight years. The 48 named storms from 2019-2020 are the most ever in a 2 year period. 63 named storms from 2018-2020 shatters the most in a 3 year period, and falls just 7 short of the record for a 4 year period. That means the 4 year record will be broken when the 8th storm this season is named (Henri).

My personal, unprofessional opinion is that we fall well short of last year's 30 storm season, but even if it's just 20, that would still be tied for the 3rd most in a season ever. It would shatter the 4 year mark and be just 1 short of the 5 year record. The CSU prediction of 17 would shatter the 4 year record. So I think it will still be a pretty active season, just based on the active period we're in. Only twice in the 2000's have we had a season with less than 10 named storms. That happened 9 times in the 20 year period prior. 15 times in the 2000's we've had 15 or more storms in a season. That only happened 7 times from 1851-1999. Again, more technology to actually see and analyze the tropics now as opposed to only going by ship reports back then.

Regardless of the number, it only takes one to cause massive damage and destroy lives. There were only 4 named storms in 1983. One of them was Hurricane Alicia, over 3 billion dollars in damage. The Galveston Hurricane of 1900 that killed 8,000 or more, was one of just 7 storms on record that year. It just takes one, and now is the time to start getting prepared, so that you're not caught in the rush, and maybe finding supplies gone, when a storm is headed your way.