2023 TEXAS REVIEW


2023 will go down as a moderate to strong El Niño year. El Niño typically means tropical action in the Atlantic basin is suppressed. 2023 also had some of the warmest water temperatures in the Atlantic basin on record. Warm water is of course the jet fuel for tropical systems. Because of the unusually warm waters, the 2023 hurricane season will go down as the most active El Niño season ever recorded as 20 named storms formed in the Atlantic this season. The previous high for an El Niño of at least moderate strength was 12 storms in 1951.

The warm water didn't totally win out over El Niño though. Most of the action this season formed in the MDR (main development region) and recurved to the subtropical Atlantic. The Caribbean and the Gulf of Mexico stayed relatively quiet. There were only 3 storms active within the Caribbean Sea this year (Bret, Franklin and Idalia). There were a couple of others that scraped along the Leeward Islands (Philippe and Tammy), but that's it. The Gulf also saw just 3 named storms within it's boundaries (Arlene, Idalia and Harold). Idalia, of course, reached category 4 status and struck the Big Bend of Florida as a cat 3.


With so few systems in the Gulf, that meant little action for Texas, but as we always say around here, it only takes one. The first potential threat to Texas occured on August 16th when a 20% lemon popped up in the western Gulf for a system that was still east of the northern Leeward Islands. By the 18th it was located just north of Haiti and the AOI (area of interest) in the western Gulf was at 40%. On the 20th the system entered the eastern Gulf and was tagged Invest 91L, with a 50% chance of development. Models were in good agreement of bringing this thing to the southern Texas coast. On the morning of 21st the system had made it to the central Gulf and the NHC tagged it Potential Tropical Cyclone 9. Models had it reaching the coast by the following morning. By the afternoon advisory the system got the upgrade to Tropical Depression 9.


Overnight on August 22nd, TD9 was upgraded again to Tropical Storm Harold, and just a few short hours later made landfall near Baffin Bay with 50 mph winds. Harold brought much needed rain to south Texas and all along the Texas/Mexico border through the Trans Pecos and Big Bend areas of the state.

Harold would be the one and only real threat for the Lone Star State this season. On September 25th the NHC dropped a 10% lemon for a system just north of the Yucatan and had it heading west, but dropped it to 0% the very next day. Not really sure why they bothered putting it on the map. On October the 9th a 20% lemon was dropped in the Bay of Campeche. A day later it was tagged Invest 93L but models had it moving toward the upper Gulf coast and Florida panhandle. A few hours later on the same day it was tagged 93L, the NHC dropped its chances of formation to 0%.

And that would do it for the tropical season in Texas. One minimal tropical storm, that brought beneficial rain to drought stricken areas along the border, and that's it. Not even any backdoor affects from anything from the Pacific. So even though there was the one landfalling Texas system, we Texans get through another hurricane season with no serious damage. And we'll take that every time.

Next year though, it's rare that El Niño last through 2 seasons so 2024 is expected to be more neutral or favoring La Niña. The Atlantic is typically more active during La Niña and with water temperatures expected to remain very warm, 2024 could be really, really busy. I mean, we just had a record number of storms for an El Niño. Imagine if this year was La Niña instead.

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