2024 PREDICTIONS

It's that time of the year again, a little over 8 weeks until the "official" start of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season. Of course Mother Nature doesn't adhere to a schedule and tropical systems can spin up at any time, but 97% of tropical storms form between the "official" designation of a season (June 1 - November 30).

Dr. William Gray

Early to mid April is when most of the more reputable sources that cover the tropics release their preseason predictions of what they expect to happen in the tropics. One of the top authorities in this regard is the the tropical weather and climate research team at Colorado State University (CSU). They have been issuing tropical weather predictions since 1984 under the guidance of Dr. William Gray. He passed away in 2016, 2 days after issuing their predictions for the 2016 season. Only since 1992 though, has CSU been making preseason predictions in April. Before that their predictions came out near the start of hurricane season (June 1), and they will still have an update then, but the April predictions give us an early assessment of what the trends and thinking are for the upcoming season.

Tons of things factor into our weather which makes predicting it so hard. There's a little thing called El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) that is important with regards to tropical weather, though it's effects reach far more places than just the tropics. ENSO is what is more commonly recognized as El Niño or La Niña. ENSO is a recurring climate pattern that involves changes in water temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific. This affects weather patterns throughout the world. A positive ENSO means our part of the world, and in this instance the tropical Atlantic in particular, will experience La Niña conditions. Negative ENSO would give us El Niño. There is also neutral ENSO where neither condition dominates. What state the ENSO is in can make a significant difference in what kind of, or how much activity, we can expect in any given hurricane season. Of course, ENSO isn't the end all, be all when it comes to how the tropics play out, but from all indications, we are expected to be transitioning to a fairly strong La Niña by the peak of the season.

La Niña Impacts

Typically La Niña means more tropical activity in the Atlantic, and the numbers do bear that out. Since the start of the hyperactive period that we're in (1995), there has been an average of 15.75 named tropical cyclones, 7.69 hurricanes and 3.52 major hurricanes per year in the Atlantic. During La Niña years those numbers increase to 18.3 named storms, 9.37 hurricanes and 4.3 majors. With that said, it appears, at least in the last 29 years, that the strength of the La Niña matters, and in the opposite way you might think. There have been 8 moderate or stronger La Niña seasons since 1995. 4 have been strong La Niña's and 4 have been moderate. In the strong La Niña years, where you'd think there'd be a ton of activity, the numbers are actually a little closer to normal. There's an average of 15 named storms (15.75), 9 hurricanes (7.69) and 3.75 major hurricanes (3.52) in strong La Niña seasons. 29 year average in parenthesis. In moderate La Niña seasons there's much more activity. 22 named storms (15.75), 9.75 hurricanes (7.69), and 5 majors (3.52). It seems that we are worse off with a weaker La Niña as opposed to a stronger one.

El Niño has the opposite effect on tropical activity in the Atlantic. Conditions during El Niño typically suppress tropical activity. There have been just 5 moderate to very strong El Niño seasons since 1995. Before last year's record breaking performance, El Niño seasons averaged 10 named storms, 3.5 hurricanes and 1.75 major hurricanes. Last year saw 20 named storms, 7 hurricanes and 3 majors, all records for El Niño since the satellite era began in 1965.

Sea Surface Temperatures

Another significant factor in tropical cyclone development is the record breaking warm water temperatures of the Atlantic. Never (on record that is) has the Atlantic been as warm as it is now. Warm water is, of course, the jet fuel that tropical systems run on. The warmer the water, not just on the surface but below it as well, the greater potential a tropical system has to explode and turn into a monster. Atmospheric conditions still have to be right though. No amount of fuel will make a system go if it isn't properly built. The extremely warm waters last year, however, are what I believe caused us to have a record breaking storm count during what was a strong El Niño event. Again, El Niño's typically mean less tropical activity in the Atlantic as atmospheric conditions generally hinder tropical development. Instead, it not only shattered the record for number of storms in an El Niño season, but it was the 4th most storms in any season on record. If we're now getting seasons like that for El Niño, I can't imagine what it would be like if it were La Niña. Well, this year we may get to find out.

2023 Season Summary

Steering patterns can be affected by ENSO. Of the 20 named storms last year during El Niño, only 3 made U.S. landfall. Only 3 systems were in the boundaries of the Gulf of Mexico. Even the Caribbean saw very little action last season with technically just 4 systems within its boundaries, only 2 in the western Caribbean, and a couple scraping along the northern Leeward Islands. Though the tropics were record breaking active for an El Niño, the atmospheric conditions kept a majority of the systems in open waters, away from land, and in particular the U.S. With extremely warm waters and an expected La Niña, I fear that both the Caribbean and the Gulf are going to see drastic increases in activity this year as the steering patterns may be less like to send storms out to sea.

2021 is the last time we had a La Niña. That was the 2nd year in a row of back-to-back moderate La Niña seasons. In that 2 year period we had a record 51 named storms, including a single season record of 30 in 2020. There were also 21 hurricanes in that 2 year period with 11 major hurricanes, including a single season record tying 7 in 2020. 19 storms in that 2 year period made U.S. landfalls.

So what does CSU think about all of this for the upcoming season? First of all CSU's April predictions have been well below the actual results in 8 of the last 9 years. On average over the last 5 years they've predicted 5 named storms fewer than the actual total, nearly 2.5 fewer hurricanes and 3.2 (prediction) to 3.8 (actual) major hurricanes. Just goes to show you that predicting weather is hard even for the best in the business. To be fair though, these predictions come out several weeks before the hurricane season even starts, and months before the peak of the season. It's hard enough predicting weather 4-7 days in advance, never mind 4-7 months.

Saharan Air Layer (SAL)

These predictions basically give us some insight as to what could be expected if certain trends continue and come to fruition. And again, there are a lot of factors that come into play. How moist or dry is the air? What affect is dust from the Sahara having? Saharan dust can play  a big role in inhibiting tropical development. Just a couple of the things that can affect disturbances individually, but don't necessarily address the overall activity of a season.

2024 CSU Predictions

CSU's predictions for 2024 are basically in-line with the general consensus that La Niña takes, and together with record breaking warm waters, could lead us to a very active and dangerous hurricane season. The 23 named storms that CSU is predicting is the highest number they've ever predicted. 19 was the previous high in 2022. That means for the 1st time ever, CSU is predicting that we exhaust the name list for 2024 and go at least 2 deep into the new supplemental list that was installed to replace the Greek letters after the record breaking 2020 season. The 11 hurricanes is also a record high prediction (9-previous). The 5 major hurricanes CSU is predicting is tied for the highest they've ever predicted. They've predicted 5 majors 3 other times, 2011 where there were only 4 majors that year, and 2006 and 2007 they predicted 5 majors and there were only 2 in each of those seasons.

So 23 named storms, 11 hurricanes and 5 major hurricanes. And keep in mind, CSU's April predictions have typically been lower that what the actual results have been in recent years.

What does all of this mean for Texas? Well, in CSU's predictions, they also give out probabilities for each state from Texas to Maine. Florida, of course, always has they highest probabilities simple because of where it's positioned. This year Florida has a 96% chance of a landfalling named storm, a 75% chance of a hurricane, and a 44% chance of a major hurricane.

Texas is ranked pretty high as well because it has the 2nd most coastline of all the Gulf and Atlantic states. This year Texas has an 80% chance of a named storm making landfall. This is 5th behind Florida, Louisiana, North Carolina and Georgia. Texas has a 54% chance of seeing a hurricane strike. That is 4th behind Florida, Louisiana and North Carolina. Finally, Texas has a 25% chance of a major hurricane strike, 2nd only to Florida. So 80% named storm, 54% hurricane and 25% major for Texas. This is well above average which is 61/36/16. Last year Texas was right around average (63/38/16) and all we saw last year was Tropical Storm Harold.

If the elevated numbers for Texas sound ominous, keep in mind this same 80/54/25 prediction came out for Texas in 2022, and that season didn't see a single named storm affect the Lone Star State. And 2022 saw CSU making what was then a record high prediction as well. 2022 was the one year in the last several that CSU's prediction fell short of what actually happened. 19 NS, 9 HU, 4 MH was predicted, 14 NS, 8 HU, 2 MH is what actually happened.

So, even though the predictions look to be nothing but doom and gloom, none of this is set in stone. That said, I am personally expecting a very busy season and I fear that the limited activity the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico has seen in the last couple of years, could have this season seeing things a little more active there.

So as always, stay informed with what's going on in the tropics, but beware of the fear mongers out there looking for clickbait, or even TV news looking for ratings bait. Find a trusted source for your tropical information. I recommend the National Hurricane Center. They are good at what they do. Start your hurricane prep now by buying extra water, batteries, non-perishable food, etc. each time you go shopping, so that you're not stuck with empty shelves when something is brewing. Have an evacuation plan ready to execute if you are in an evacuation area. If you are not in an evacuation area but still don't want to be in the storm, please keep in mind those who HAVE to evacuate versus those who WANT to. Here is a good article to show you those who HAVE to evacuate - Evacuate or Not To Evacuate. No one wants another Rita situation.

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