22 TEXAS REVIEW

The 2022 Hurricane Season was the 1st in 8 years that didn't start with a preseason named storm. So considering an Invest popped up on the 1st "official" day of hurricane season, a system that eventually turned into Tropical Storm Alex, things got off to a rather slow start, which was basically getting back to normal.

The 1st raised eyebrows for the state of Texas for the 2022 season didn't come until June 25th when the NHC tagged an AOI (area of interest) from the north central to northwestern Gulf of Mexico. Over the next couple of days, models were on and off about developing this AOI, but all either had it moving into Texas, or at the very least bringing much needed rainfall to the Lone Star State. This AOI was eventually tagged Invest 95L. Models started out pointing it towards the Texas/Mexico border. Later they were having it make a sharp right before it got to the coast down there, and bringing it up to around Matagorda Bay.

Development of the system was never really an issue. The highest the NHC had it was at 40%. At best it was probably going to be a weak tropical depression, but more importantly was the rain it was hopefully going to bring to drought stricken areas along the Texas coast. Shear took hold of the system and was blowing convection north and east. This eventually brought some showers towards the upper Texas coast, but very little made it beyond the immediate coast. By late on June 30th, dry air in the lower levels were taking hold and the system nearly dissipated that night.

Overnight radar showed some circulation much further north, to the east of High Island. This turned out to be a mesoscale convective vortex (MCV) that basically pushed all the rain further to the east. Though there were a few showers and storms around the Houston area, all of those areas expected to get at least a couple of inches or more, got very little, if any. Most of the wet stuff remained along the coast and into the Beaumont/Port Arthur area. The system finally pushed off into Louisiana.

On July 10th an AOI popped up just off the coast in the northern Gulf. This stemmed from a decaying frontal boundary pushing off the coast. A possible drift west towards Texas was a possibility. This disturbance reached a peak probability of forming (30%) a day later and those probabilities quickly started dropping as it became clear this system had little chance to form.

It was almost exactly a month later (Aug. 11) when the next AOI popped up that Texans had to worry about. This one was also from a decaying frontal boundary pushing off the Gulf coast. A day later the NHC tagged it Invest 98L. This system from the get-go was expected to make it's way towards the Texas coastline, anywhere from near Corpus Christi to the Mexican border. It's chances of forming into a cyclone remained quite low though. Once again it wasn't so much the development of the system that was a concern, but more the hope of the much needed rainfall it could bring to drought stricken areas of Texas.

Sunday morning, August 14th, 98L came ashore near Baffin Bay. It's interaction with land seemed to cause an explosion of convection, and even seemed to tighten the system up. One could argue that this became a tropical depression, at the very least, right before landfall, or certainly afterwards, which is not unprecedented. See Colin earlier this season, and Claudette last year. This also had the rainfall estimates way too low. Most models were calling for no more than 5". What ended up happening was that several areas in south Texas received over 10". This system continued along the Rio Grande eventually bringing some much needed rain to the Big Bend area, and as far west as El Paso.

Next up was a system in the western Caribbean that was projected to enter the Bay of Campeche. This system was tagged Invest 99L on Aug. 18. The 10th invest of the 2022 season, and 5th in the Gulf of Mexico. 99L splashed down off the Yucatan and convection almost immediately exploded. Hurricane Hunters flew into the system the next day, and found no surface circulation. But the system was close enough to becoming a cyclone, and close enough to making landfall, that the NHC tagged it Potential Tropical Cyclone #4.

By the end of the day on the 19th, the NHC had PTC4's chances of forming at 80%. Convection took a dive overnight on the 20th. Moderate to strong southerly flow and it's proximity to land helped keep a low level center from forming. Then northerly shear took over and basically killed it, as it came ashore near Laguna Madre in Mexico, with convection displaced well to it's south. This helped keep the moisture envelope from moving into south Texas. Very little impact from this system, not only in Texas, but in Mexico, where it came ashore, as well.

After August 20th there wasn't a single system that even entered the Gulf of Mexico, never mind threatening Texas, until Hurricane Ian entered the eastern Gulf in late September. Ian made landfall on the Florida Gulf coast and was never a threat to Texas.

On about October 10th, remnants from Hurricane Julia broke off and entered the Bay of Campeche. A day later it was named Tropical Storm Karl. Karl was never a threat to Texas, and eventually dissipated before ashore in Mexico in the southern Gulf.

Around the 25th of September, remnants from Pacific Hurricane Roslyn interacted with a cold front moving through Texas bringing some beneficial rains throughout the state. That was it until November 4th when what was once Hurricane Lisa splashed down in the Bay of Campeche as a tropical depression. No reorganization occured as it moved back over Mexico, never a threat to Texas.

And that would do it for the 2022 Texas hurricane season. Not a single tropical cyclone made Texas landfall, or even had an impact on the state. A couple of tropical waves and remnants of a couple of systems and that was it. Texans very lucky in 2022.