JUNE '22 REVIEW
The 1st month of the 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season is in the books, and though there were a few features, only 1 named system came from it.
On the very 1st "official" day of the season (June 1), we had an Invest tagged near the Yucatan Peninsula (91L). This system was part of a broad low in the NW Caribbean and the remnants of what was once Hurricane Agatha in the Pacific. Those remnants crossed the Isthmus of Tehuantepec from the Pacific and emerged into the Bay of Campeche. With the system projected to head to Florida, and be there within 48 hours, on June 2nd the NHC gave it the designation of Potential Tropical Cyclone #1 (PTC1).
A ton of shear was present in the Gulf of Mexico, and that shear remained present during PTC1's entire trip to the Florida coast. Any center that tried to form had convection completely blown away from it. By the 3rd, PTC1 was making it's way across Florida, sorta making landfall between Naples and Ft. Myers. Sorta because there's was no closed circulation to really pinpoint a landfall. On the 4th, the system had completed it's crossing and had splashed down on the Atlantic side of Florida. With the help of a trough, the system was finally able to form a closed center and became Tropical Storm Alex on the 5th. The next day Alex scooted just to the north of Bermuda and became extra-tropical and out of our lives the day after that.
On the morning of June 23rd an unusual AOI appeared on the map. This was a strong tropical wave just off the African coast, south of the Cabo Verde islands. Cabo Verde action doesn't typically get started until around the 1st of August. In the evening on that same day, the NHC had upped the chances of development to 40% and tagged it Invest 94L. As this system was making it's long journey across the Atlantic, an AOI popped up in the north central and northwestern Gulf of Mexico. By the 27th 94L was still a ways east of the Lesser Antilles, when a wave in the central Atlantic behind it got an AOI tag. In the meantime, it had now been 4 days since 94L was given a 40% chance to form within 5 days, and we were still waiting.
PTC2 finally enters this area and it could never get anything going. I think there are some other factors that played more of a role though. This system was very far south. When it was designated PTC2 it wasn't even above 9 degrees latitude. There was some concern that Guyana could be in the pathway, very unusual, or at the very least an eastern Venezuela hit. That's how far south it was. PTC2 ended up scraping the coast of Venezuela and eventually Columbia on it's journey through the graveyard. This, and the fact that it had picked up forward motion of up to 30 mph, are the major reasons this system did not form, in my opinion. I believe had it been just a little further north, off the coast, it would have defied the graveyard and strengthened. But it didn't. It hugged the South American coast and struggled to form.
Meanwhile, Invest 95L in the Gulf was closing in on the Texas coast. It ended up encountering some shear that blew convection to the north and east. It was never expected to develop much as the NHC never had it above 40%, but Texans were hopeful that it would bring some much needed rain to their drought stricken areas. On the 30th, rains started approaching and penetrating the upper Texas coast, but nothing ever got too much more inland than that. By late in the day as the hour glass was running out on June, it appeared that dry air in the lower levels delivered a knockout punch and it looked like it nearly dissipated the system. Radar had very little showing. What there was showing was well to the east heading into southwestern Louisiana. That would end it's story for June, to be continued in July.
On the very 1st "official" day of the season (June 1), we had an Invest tagged near the Yucatan Peninsula (91L). This system was part of a broad low in the NW Caribbean and the remnants of what was once Hurricane Agatha in the Pacific. Those remnants crossed the Isthmus of Tehuantepec from the Pacific and emerged into the Bay of Campeche. With the system projected to head to Florida, and be there within 48 hours, on June 2nd the NHC gave it the designation of Potential Tropical Cyclone #1 (PTC1).
A ton of shear was present in the Gulf of Mexico, and that shear remained present during PTC1's entire trip to the Florida coast. Any center that tried to form had convection completely blown away from it. By the 3rd, PTC1 was making it's way across Florida, sorta making landfall between Naples and Ft. Myers. Sorta because there's was no closed circulation to really pinpoint a landfall. On the 4th, the system had completed it's crossing and had splashed down on the Atlantic side of Florida. With the help of a trough, the system was finally able to form a closed center and became Tropical Storm Alex on the 5th. The next day Alex scooted just to the north of Bermuda and became extra-tropical and out of our lives the day after that.
On about June 3rd the NHC tagged Invest 92L near Bermuda. Nothing ever came of that.
On June 13th the NHC identified an AOI in the SW Caribbean. Most models had it running into Nicaragua and moving into the Pacific, but some had it curving around and and entering the NW Caribbean, heading towards the Yucatan and eventually entering the Bay of Campeche. On June 14th, it was tagged Invest 93L. This system did end up slamming into Nicaragua and nothing ever came of it.
On the morning of June 23rd an unusual AOI appeared on the map. This was a strong tropical wave just off the African coast, south of the Cabo Verde islands. Cabo Verde action doesn't typically get started until around the 1st of August. In the evening on that same day, the NHC had upped the chances of development to 40% and tagged it Invest 94L. As this system was making it's long journey across the Atlantic, an AOI popped up in the north central and northwestern Gulf of Mexico. By the 27th 94L was still a ways east of the Lesser Antilles, when a wave in the central Atlantic behind it got an AOI tag. In the meantime, it had now been 4 days since 94L was given a 40% chance to form within 5 days, and we were still waiting.
With 94L getting to within a couple of days of the Lesser Antilles and the South American coast, as it was coming in pretty low, the NHC tagged it Potential Tropical Cyclone #2 (PTC2) on the 27th. A day later, the Gulf AOI was tagged Invest 95L.
The eastern Caribbean, especially early in the season, is known as the hurricane graveyard. This is because wind shear and trade winds usually aren't conducive for tropical systems to thrive. Last year, for example, Hurricane Elsa entered this area as a cat 1 and weakened to a tropical storm by the time it reached the Dominican Republic.
PTC2 finally enters this area and it could never get anything going. I think there are some other factors that played more of a role though. This system was very far south. When it was designated PTC2 it wasn't even above 9 degrees latitude. There was some concern that Guyana could be in the pathway, very unusual, or at the very least an eastern Venezuela hit. That's how far south it was. PTC2 ended up scraping the coast of Venezuela and eventually Columbia on it's journey through the graveyard. This, and the fact that it had picked up forward motion of up to 30 mph, are the major reasons this system did not form, in my opinion. I believe had it been just a little further north, off the coast, it would have defied the graveyard and strengthened. But it didn't. It hugged the South American coast and struggled to form.
Even after clearing the continent and hitting the open waters of the SW Caribbean, PTC2 struggled to get going. By the last hour in the month of June, it had still not closed off a circulation to become a named system. So it's story continues into July.
Meanwhile, Invest 95L in the Gulf was closing in on the Texas coast. It ended up encountering some shear that blew convection to the north and east. It was never expected to develop much as the NHC never had it above 40%, but Texans were hopeful that it would bring some much needed rain to their drought stricken areas. On the 30th, rains started approaching and penetrating the upper Texas coast, but nothing ever got too much more inland than that. By late in the day as the hour glass was running out on June, it appeared that dry air in the lower levels delivered a knockout punch and it looked like it nearly dissipated the system. Radar had very little showing. What there was showing was well to the east heading into southwestern Louisiana. That would end it's story for June, to be continued in July.
As for the AOI that was behind 94L/PTC2, it was still well east of the Lesser Antilles with it's chances of forming down to 10% as the clock ran out on June.
So what seemed like a lot of action, didn't really amount to much. 2 long lasting PTC's of which 1 eventually got named, then it only lasted a couple of days. 5 total invests, including what eventually became Alex and PTC2, and one AOI that never even got an Invest tag put on it. That is a far cry from the 4 tropical storms that formed last year in the month of June.
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