2023 PREDICTIONS

How do you know when a new hurricane season is approaching? When Colorado State University, the foremost authority of cyclone predicting, comes out with their annual preseason predictions.

One of the biggest factors in this year's forecast is the expected El Niño, which should be in full force come the meat part of the season starting in August. El Niño, if you don't know, typically means less tropical activity in the Atlantic basin. Of course, if we go back to August of last year, where we were in a 3rd year La Niña, which typically means more Atlantic activity, you'll remember we had ZERO named storms in the month of August. It was the first stormless August in 25 years, and just the 4th since 1930. We also went 60 full days, from July 4th through September 1st without a named storm in the Atlantic, the 6th longest in-season stormless streak on record. So you'd almost think we were in the midst of El Niño last year.

That stormless August last year really put a dent in CSU's 2022 predictions. Last year they predicted 19 named storms. We ended up with just 14. They did predict 9 hurricanes for which we had 8, but they also predicted 4 major hurricanes and we only had 2. Because of the expected El Niño, this year's predictions are well below what they thought last year, and are even a tad bit below the average of the last 30 year's.

The 30 year average is 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes, 3 majors. CSU's predictions for the 2023 hurricane season are;

13 named storms

6 hurricanes

2 major hurricanes

The last time we had 13 or fewer named storms was 2015 when we had 11. That, of course, was during one of the stronger El Niño's on record. The only 2 systems that made U.S. landfall that year were the very first 2, Tropical Storm Ana, an early May preseason storm that made landfall near Myrtle Beach, SC, and Tropical Storm Bill, mid June, making landfall near Port O'Connor, TX.

Because El Niño is not expected to be very strong until at least a couple of months into the season, it's possible we could see activity closer to home in the early part of the season, June, or before, July and maybe even early August. Of course, always keep in mind that it only takes 1 hurricane to ruin lives. 1983 was one of the stronger El Niño's on record and the Houston/Galveston area got hit with cat 3 Hurricane Alicia, one of only 4 named storms that entire season. By the way, this year is the 40th anniversary of Alicia.

Not only does CSU come out with a prediction for number of storms, they also project landfall probabilities. Florida, of course, is always #1 on this list simply because of where it's situated, giving it the most coastline of any state along the Atlantic basin. CSU predicts an 87% chance of a named system making landfall in Florida, a 58% chance of that system being a hurricane, and a 30% of a major striking the Sunshine State. That sounds ominous, but it's down considerably from last year where they predicted a named storm striking at 96%, 75% for a hurricane and 44% for a major. Of course, last year Florida got hit by 2 hurricanes with one being Hurricane Ian making landfall as a cat 4 near Punta Gorda. Ian peaked as a cat 5 just hours before landfall, the 1st Atlantic cat 5 since 2019, and 1st in the Gulf of Mexico since 2018. The other Florida strike was Hurricane Nicole, a cat 1 that hit near Vero Beach in November, only the 3rd Florida landfalling hurricane ever in the month of November.

OK, so, this is Texas Tropics, what does all of this mean for Texas? Well, first of all, Texas saw zero action last season. And last season the numbers were pretty high for the Lone Star State. CSU had an 80% chance (5th highest) of a named storm striking the Texas coast, 54% for a hurricane (4th highest), and a 25% chance of a major making Texas landfall (2nd highest). Keep in mind, Texas has the 2nd most coastline in the Atlantic basin. This year the rankings are the same, but the numbers are down dramatically. This season CSU thinks there's a 63% chance of a named storm making Texas landfall, 38% chance it's a hurricane, and a 16% chance it's a major.

As a Texan you've got to feel a lot better about those numbers compared to last year, but 1) the numbers were very high last year and we got nothing, and 2) Hurricane Alicia, one of just 4 named storms the entire 1983 hurricane season. And for what it's worth, Hurricane Barry, the 2nd named storm of that 4 storm 1983 season, made landfall near Matamoros, MX, right at the Texas/Mexico border. So again, all it takes is one, El Niño or not.